How lucky is too lucky?: The Minecraft Speedrunning Dream Controversy Explained

  بازدید 2,576,455

Stand-up Maths

پیش 28 روز

Buy my book Humble Pi now!
www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/610964/humble-pi-by-matt-parker/
UPDATE: Harvard Book Store have totally sold out.
My talk on 4 February 2021 at Harvard Book Store:
www.harvard.com/event/virtual_event_matt_parker/
Here is the original accusation against Dream.
Video: irpost.info/face/fy-lm-h-y/kYK_2JqtyIKolmo.html&ab_channel=Geosquare
Paper: mcspeedrun.com/dream.pdf
And here is Dream's reply.
Video: irpost.info/face/fy-lm-h-y/lZ7X0bTTs4zPjYc.html&ab_channel=DreamXD
Paper: drive.google.com/file/d/1yfLURFdDhMfrvI2cFMdYM8f_M_IRoAlM/view
"Matt flips a coin 100 times."
irpost.info/face/fy-lm-h-y/uGe-1crVlm3Yons.html
"Holy Craps! How a Gambling Grandma Broke the Record"
content.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1901663,00.html
Number of casinos in the world in 2011: 3,547
www.statista.com/statistics/221031/total-worldwide-casinos-by-region/
Roulette records.
www.roulette17.com/stories/record-reds-blacks-in-a-row/
CORRECTIONS
- At 09:08 I say “1 in 110 trillion” when I meant to say “1 in 110 billion”. The number on the screen is correct, it was just a verbal slip-up.
- At 25:27 I showed the 118 craps record as “1 in 1.2 × 10^9” when it should be “1 in 2.2 × 10^9”. The voiceover says the correct number.
- I slip and “more likely” instead of “less likely” at 33:47 (I think I may have even been going for “more unlikely”). But everything in the screen is correct.
- Let me know if you spot any more mistakes!
Thanks to my Patreon supporters who mean I can spend [[REDACTED]] hours filming myself trying to achieve improbably things. If you support me, you can get access to all [[REDACTED]] hours of bonus footage from this episode.
www.patreon.com/standupmaths
As always: thanks to Jane Street who support my channel. They're amazing. And I believe they have no opinion on Dream.
www.janestreet.com/
Endless filming by Matt Parker
Editing by Alex Genn-Bash
Some graphics by Ben Sparks
Minecraft consultancy by Oliver Dunk
Music by Howard Carter
Design by Simon Wright and Adam Robinson
MATT PARKER: Stand-up Mathematician
Website: standupmaths.com/
US book: www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/610964/humble-pi-by-matt-parker/
UK book: mathsgear.co.uk/collections/books/products/humble-pi-signed-paperback

نظر
Stand-up Maths
Stand-up Maths پیش 28 روز
I’m not commenting on how many takes that took. But feel free to guess! (And if you must know: the complete footage of every attempt will be uploaded to Patreon. patreon.com/standupmaths )
Charske Vlogs
Charske Vlogs پیش 8 روز
I wonder how long the bball thing took XD
kkmac
kkmac پیش 8 روز
@BlacksmithTWD These are all of the streams Dream did in 1 week, they are all uploaded on twitch
kkmac
kkmac پیش 8 روز
@TheAtheistPaladin I think 100 million absolute best case. Most likely, more like 1 trillion
Shaquille Oatmeal
Shaquille Oatmeal پیش 8 روز
@Douglas Morrison Probably did but he realized it would be good for the video so he re did it until he didn't smile.
Fred Scooby
Fred Scooby پیش 8 روز
I love minecraft, and find it too be highly mathematical, I am sure you found this to be true as well, I came for the math though and thanks. My fahter and I both actually love this game, we use the mathematics embedded in the game to create massive structures in Survival. And in doing so, we learned to count at incredibly fast rates, although, only usually based on 2 and 4 though, or sometimes 64 if we must. It has created an interesting view for myself, as I began to notice real mathematical patterns in the real world, which was really wild.
tristan flodin
tristan flodin پیش 42 دقیقه
If the randomness is based on time like it is in many games, it can be gamed
Athenri
Athenri پیش 33 دقیقه
A little more complex. It defines a seed based on time. That seed progresses every time it's triggered by something to a new value that you can't predict. In the nether, where you're going to be doing this, the lava will be triggering the seed thousands of times each second, making it completely impossible to aim at any value.
bro wtf
bro wtf پیش 2 ساعت
that feeling when you don't understand what the person is saying anymore but you're still listening with a smile as if you understood what they're saying
Not Holdini
Not Holdini پیش 2 ساعت
“He’s not cheating he’s just really good”-Any Dream Stan
Deniel Liusinskij
Deniel Liusinskij پیش 2 ساعت
love how people think he cheats when he streams all of his speedrunning and he makes random seed worlds
Athenri
Athenri پیش 2 ساعت
That's why it was easy to see that he was cheating, yes.
Faire Play
Faire Play پیش 3 ساعت
An event so big and controversial had Matt do the math. I wouldn't be surprised if Tom thought about doing the computer science behind it. What a world~ Or the things I might not have known
King Jack 2000
King Jack 2000 پیش 4 ساعت
I'm not sure if you will read this but if you compared this with another speed runners numbers
Hippolippo
Hippolippo پیش 4 ساعت
Wait you wrote humble pi! I loved that book so much! (Will there be a sequel?)
MLIFF
MLIFF پیش 5 ساعت
What blows my mind is that, even with these odds, he still only got the 4th fastest Speerund. How is that even possible? :D
Burn Stick
Burn Stick پیش 5 ساعت
I'm sorry but for me thats not really scientific what you are doing. You just went ahead and disregarded completely all of the arguments from dream just because it was written angrily? Seriously? I mean the point of the paper was not to show that the number was possible but that the number itself is calculated wrongly. So everything you did was "ohh this number is impossible to achieve. Whats that? It's disputed? Ohh i don't care".
Burn Stick
Burn Stick پیش 2 ساعت
@Jacob The master66 i don't quite get your point. What I said is that what stand up maths did was not to compare both sides and check the validity but just went with a number (which was disputed by one side) and then just showed how unrealistic it was (which both parties actually agreed on and was the reason why the number is disputed)
Jacob The master66
Jacob The master66 پیش 2 ساعت
Well dream is a bias source for this information, of course he would defend himself saying he did nothing wrong, meanwhile the speed run moderator gives reasons why it’s fake, so he has to find his own evidence.
Joshua Gavaghan
Joshua Gavaghan پیش 5 ساعت
7:17 meta dude.
Azlan Shah
Azlan Shah پیش 5 ساعت
That basketball throw makes me like and subscribe
William Lyon
William Lyon پیش 6 ساعت
Odds question!!! I called dice before I rolled them i said I would roll all 6s on my 6 dice, I understand the odds of that are low but didn’t it make the odds even crazier if you factor in me calling what it would be also?? I’m just curious if anyone can figure out for me the odds of me predicting the dice and rolling all 6s.
William Lyon
William Lyon پیش 6 ساعت
@Athenri thanks that seems pretty obvious now thanks a lot.
Athenri
Athenri پیش 6 ساعت
Well, the probability is the same-ish whether or not you yell "I'ma get six sixes". The difference is that there are some other results that would normally be notable when you consider biases. Like let's say you're playing some game where *any* six of a kind is very valuable. Then clearly there are *six* ways to get that, and we need to adjust for that, because six sixes, six fives, six fours, six threes, six twos and six ones would all have been equally amazing results. In this case, you're locked specifically into that one, particular result, six sixes, so all we need to ask is "what's the probability of getting that particular result" There are 46656 different results when you roll six dice. You're interested in exactly *one* of them, so it would happen, on average, once in 46656 sets of six dice being thrown.
LCB 444
LCB 444 پیش 6 ساعت
Gooood explanation. Thank you !
Vic Jang
Vic Jang پیش 8 ساعت
Murdered by a IRpost video. Thanks for making this. It was both educational and fun to watch. I already watched a few others take on this drama and reached the same conclusion, but your explanation and ability is top-notch.
MonkeyMan075
MonkeyMan075 پیش 10 ساعت
I saw the thumbnail and said bro is that Tom Segura
Cody Taylor
Cody Taylor پیش 10 ساعت
Well as someone who doesn't really care either way i think this video is the end of the debate. Dream was not playing vanilla minecraft. I really wish he would just admit it but hey im not him i cant possibly understand what he actually did
GamingJoey
GamingJoey پیش 11 ساعت
While I don't play minecraft, it seems like all these probability analysis are missing something important: random number generators in games are usually not very good and can cause unlikely streaks. And in some games, they are even possible to manipulate by doing specific actions within the game...
liberosis
liberosis پیش 12 ساعت
man has a conjoined megaminx 17:16 edit: and what looks like a 7x7 18:06
Major
Major پیش 8 ساعت
Nice, a cuber
Dn By
Dn By پیش 14 ساعت
The Algorithum brought me here ............ 10 minutes in and I think im having a stroke ........ i dont understand a thing he's saying , but i cant move away and stop watching ...... must be a stroke..... send help !
The Optic
The Optic پیش 14 ساعت
When you're an old Numberphile fan and you rediscover Matt Parker.
Nirvana Supermind
Nirvana Supermind پیش 14 ساعت
Fun fact: I have over 1K
piratestu
piratestu پیش 14 ساعت
First and foremost, I believe in his premise and he's absolutely right and it was a good video...what made me cautious is at the start when he said he's a disinterested participant... That's also untrue. This is a piece of culture meant to entertain. He's a professional entertainer. He is paid to be entertaining. You cannot be disinterested when your pay is affected by the outcome of in this case is to probabilities. The 10 Billion Human Second Century was his thing to get the non statistic viewers aware, onboard, entertained. Again, I don't think his maths or anything was wrong and the video is good, I just wish he wouldn't state in his opening that he's unbiased, because he definitely is. Now shower me with dislikes, I feast upon them!
Athenri
Athenri پیش ساعت
@piratestu man, that's the stupidest argument I've seen today, and I've seen a lot. More than matt is interested in scoring big on a video about potential cheating in Minecraft, he's interested in having integrity as a math person on the internet and among his mathematician friends.
piratestu
piratestu پیش 2 ساعت
@JuukaRock of course he can, but it doesn’t make him unbiased... now if he said he’s disinterested and all proceeds of this video will go to charity, then he can talk... until then he has a financial interest for the video to do well... and ask Fox News the best way to get eyes is to take the most outlandish option.
Athenri
Athenri پیش 6 ساعت
@JuukaRock Yeah, Matt's disinterested because he doesn't care about the outcome. Was Dream cheating? Was Dream not cheating? Literally doesn't matter to him. No financial stake, no emotional investment in either side. But obviously he's interested in the case because it's a good vessel to display some math.
JuukaRock
JuukaRock پیش 6 ساعت
You can make entertainment videos in support of Dream, like with MatPat who was most certainly not unbiased. Matt here actually doesn't have a financial stake in maintaining a good relationship with Dream, so he can say what he wants.
Andrew Zeitler
Andrew Zeitler پیش 15 ساعت
The seemly cowbell dfly sin because trout nationally reflect versus a truculent flugelhorn. pink, berserk indonesia
Clockwork Kirlia
Clockwork Kirlia پیش 15 ساعت
Magnificent editing, and really impressive composure. Oh, yeah, also, the maths was great! Really cleared this issue up for me, as a maths fan vaguely aware of the speedrunning Minecraft community.
Ashe
Ashe پیش 16 ساعت
Loved that flourish at the end
Thomas Gray
Thomas Gray پیش 16 ساعت
Would be interested to see how the odds fall for the other item dream got from the piglin barters, are they wildly low, are they about right, did all item get greatly reduced or was it the item in the same group as the ender pearls that took the loss.
Rexy The T. Rex from Jurassic Park
Rexy The T. Rex from Jurassic Park پیش 16 ساعت
Didn’t even need to watch half a minute to say this. Hypocrite.
Raymond Christopher Tanto
Raymond Christopher Tanto پیش 12 ساعت
@morbideddie he is the hypocrite imagine having a name REXY THE TREX FROM JURRASIC PARK
morbideddie
morbideddie پیش 16 ساعت
Explain.
Mickstache
Mickstache پیش 16 ساعت
What happened to H John Benjamins deep gravely voice?
RoomerJ
RoomerJ پیش 16 ساعت
This is a months old story that's already been proven.
morbideddie
morbideddie پیش 7 ساعت
Oh, I see what your saying, making a video on a topic that is both highly requested and still highly misunderstood by a large portion of people is not worthwhile for an education channel because it happened a little while ago. I'll go tell my history teacher to pack up things and find a new career.
OmegaAudio
OmegaAudio پیش 14 ساعت
@RoomerJ He literally said he got a ton of requests for this subject, so he's answering the requests. The hell do you want from him?
Becky Brooks
Becky Brooks پیش 15 ساعت
Is someone forcing you to watch it?
RoomerJ
RoomerJ پیش 16 ساعت
@morbideddie3 weeks and this issue has been solved months before that...
morbideddie
morbideddie پیش 16 ساعت
The video was posted nearly a month ago...
Georg Lehner
Georg Lehner پیش 16 ساعت
If dream had only fudged the probabilty tables just slightly less, we wouldn't have this controversy and people might just say he got lucky. But he had to overdo it. And not even get the world record for it anyway...
Athenri
Athenri پیش 16 ساعت
Possibly - but then he might have had to play more before he had a lucky run good enough to make it, and then it would have been clear once more
Stephen Robinson
Stephen Robinson پیش 17 ساعت
17.17 boss throw?? We just gonna skip that and not say anything 👑😂
Trash
Trash پیش 17 ساعت
forsenCD just a dream
Robert Lukotka
Robert Lukotka پیش 17 ساعت
I was quite disappointed to find out that your reasoning is completely incorrect. If there is possible cherry-picking you have to factor it quite carefully. E.g. if you flip a coin 200 times, and you cherry-pick 100 heads you get an observation that is way more unlikely than your upper bound on what can actually happen. So your claim about 10 billion human second century is incorrect. I would say that it is a dangerous oversimplification. You should calculate each run separately 50 blaze kills -> 35 blaze rods and 44 barters into 7 pearl trades. This is approximately 0.0033 * 0.00373 which is approximately 0.00001 so if you try 100000 times you probably be able to cherry-pick this. And of course if you are really lucky you need much less tries (10000ish) and also several people are trying to do this. This is conceivable if this roll is at the start of the game but I doubt it is. I do not have enough knowledge about Minecraft to judge if this is conceivable.
Athenri
Athenri پیش 17 ساعت
Yes, if someone is deceptively passing off non-consecutive runs as consecutive, you obviously can't use it as a measure for how likely a particular thing is to happen. That's a silly complaint.
Dopefish
Dopefish پیش 18 ساعت
statistics is bad math, learn calculus and linear algebra.
Mikkel Ribjerg
Mikkel Ribjerg پیش 18 ساعت
Wonderfully easy to understand, and somehow fun to watch throughout
Prend Lala
Prend Lala پیش 18 ساعت
I dont care about Minecraft, but that shot would be normally considered too lucky.
David Mountain
David Mountain پیش 18 ساعت
@Stand-up Maths: So here's a question: Do the intended probabilities work out as actual probabilities IRL - Computers have problems generating truly random numbers (I've heard) (Maybe this has been solved) is it possible that despite minecraft's published probabilities, a certain processor may generate less than random rolls in favor of a dream run (the equivalent of finding a randomly un-random dice) Perhaps it was played on a processor that had a fault that made it not as random as intended? Thoughts?
Athenri
Athenri پیش 32 دقیقه
@morbideddie just adding to this - if he *did* have some kind of wild glitch that meant he wasn't playing the same kind of game as everyone else, that'd still not qualify for glitchless.
kep arani
kep arani پیش 17 ساعت
Geosquare adressed this on his video
morbideddie
morbideddie پیش 17 ساعت
The RNG in 1.16 minecraft is generated at irregular intervals and is dictated by various factors in the game world which is itself randomly selected. The white noise present due to this makes the RNG effectively random in that it cannot be reasonably manipulated or predicted for either blaze rods or ender pearls. In effect this means it’s random. This is backed up by other runners and simulations showing drop rates in line with the numbers we would expect from random numbers. I’m no computer expert so it maybe possible that dream had a specific processor error that allowed his computer to run normally but happened to give him above average luck in the two items he needed. That said I think the chances of that happening are about as unlikely as him getting the luck he did in the runs.
hog n dog
hog n dog پیش 18 ساعت
For perspective: there are an est. 7.5x10^18 grains of sand on earth
Charles Heaton
Charles Heaton پیش 18 ساعت
Amazing video! The only thing I wish got covered, even a quick 5 second explanation would have been on the Random seed generation of minecraft ..... wouldnt the amount of probable worlds make the numbers come alittle closer to realtiy? Because as humans we only have ONE world we can all speed run at the same time :)
Charles Heaton
Charles Heaton پیش 18 ساعت
Though I do realize that the things like the ender pearl and blaze rod chances are unaffected by the worlds terrain so maybe it doesnt matter..... thats why I asked haha
Linus Brink
Linus Brink پیش 21 ساعت
...so you say there's a chance?
Primordial 02
Primordial 02 پیش 21 ساعت
Why did I just watch this whole video at 4 am, I don’t even play minecraft, or do any sort of maths if I can help it
trygswyrm woodside
trygswyrm woodside پیش 22 ساعت
The whole point of that second article is just so the fans of one side have some lines to spam when they are talking about it in their online social groups. It's very obvious, but just one of those areas in modern day life where no one will admit the obvious. That 1 in 6300 line, even though it's an obvious simple math error, was probably done on purpose solely so 5,000 people would go to reddit and say "dude it's 1 in 6,300 chance, you really think a speedrunner hasn't run a game 6,300 times?" They know the error will come out eventually and they have an easy out to go "oops ya that's a simple error", but the damage is already done at that point. Propaganda has been spammed, brains have been changed.
Dangerous 1A
Dangerous 1A پیش 23 ساعت
Just realised that this guy is from "You Have Been Warned"
Eli B
Eli B پیش 23 ساعت
WTF??!!?!?!? 4TH?
Rich Galante
Rich Galante پیش روز
Eyy pyraminxes in the background!
Trias00
Trias00 پیش روز
Pirate Princess Petunia, your name is awesome.
NebelHose
NebelHose پیش روز
Algorithm
Benoit Wautelet
Benoit Wautelet پیش روز
One thing still bugs me though, you said it yourself choosing the statistics to calculate after the event it's very easy to have "impossible" events. It's true that this is a case everyone considers lucky but for a game as complex as Minecraft, there is an astonishing great number of "lucky" cases. Maybe enough to compensate? I have no idea.
Athenri
Athenri پیش روز
These things are corrected for in the original mod paper. Correcting for them, and for the fact that it could have been any speedrunner, yields roughly one in 7.5 trillion.
Finlay Martins
Finlay Martins پیش روز
If there is anyone I'm going to trust in regards to this controversy, it this guy because not only does he know his stuff but as he mentions, he is completely objective and unbiased
BigMace
BigMace پیش روز
HE DELETED HIS RESPONSE HAHAHHAHAHA
Dr. Weird
Dr. Weird پیش روز
This guy watches Summoning Salt i think
Not Serosh
Not Serosh پیش روز
my maths teacher told us to watch this for online school lol
Nicklas Martos
Nicklas Martos پیش روز
The odds of dream getting these key outcomes is as likely as picking the right watermolecule in a glass of water or the right grain of sand in the entire Sahara desert on the first try. Everyone convicted on basis of fingerprints or DNA tests should be released long before we contemplate this level of luck
Adam Hopkins
Adam Hopkins پیش روز
CPD (craps per decade) my new favorite statistic
ThatOneInternetGuy
ThatOneInternetGuy پیش روز
Wait, you're telling me people are arguing over a *fourth place* run? Just have him do it again!
flawed
flawed پیش روز
he only got fourth place because one of the eyes of ender broke he wouldave gotten first otherwise
Derploop
Derploop پیش روز
TBH, I don't think it matters. His content is still entertaining and he's still legitimately incredibly good at the game. If he took the 'any publicity is good pubilcity' approach, in this case I just don't care. I'm sure any drama was just Stans on Twitter, and we already know that website is a cesspool that you should never visit. I also don't really care is someone fakes a speedrun of a game that never should have been speedran in the first place. There are so many good elements of minecraft, and its speedrun potential has never been one of them, although its ability to be played as the player chooses to has always been one.
OmegaAudio
OmegaAudio پیش 19 ساعت
so.....screw the entire community of people who DO genuinely care about minecraft speedrunning? That seems a little harsh just because that's not your interest.
Fluffy White Llama
Fluffy White Llama پیش روز
@Derploop Research on the whole Dream dilemma, thats what I meant. I agree with you that the luck factor can be pretty tedious in Minecraft speedrunning, but in my opinion that doesn't take away the fact that it's still a great game to speedrun. There are many brilliant strategies that can be used and new ones are always popping up. Minecraft really is a beautiful game where almost anything can be done, and some players like to choose the destination of speedrunning. I myself don't speedrun that often but I'm still intrigued by it. Props to you for being an old OG player too, that's pretty epic.
Derploop
Derploop پیش روز
@Fluffy White Llama research on what? I've played minecraft since about a week after rails released if that's what you mean? That's pre-alpha. So, I'd say I'm pretty experienced in the game and more than qualified to provide my opinion, which is that there are better features of minecraft than its questionable suitability for speedrunning. Minecraft has always been a journey before destination game for me, so while I respect that PvP minigames or speedrunning are a totally valid way to play an open ended game, they also make it closed ended, and that misses what makes the game so good in the first place, IMO.
Fluffy White Llama
Fluffy White Llama پیش روز
How much research have you done? This sounds like an echo of what Game Theory said
Magicmeatball
Magicmeatball پیش روز
All I hear is “I don’t understand anything about the subject but here’s what I think”
Dream 2
Dream 2 پیش روز
Hi
DatFunniestChannel
DatFunniestChannel پیش روز
2540000th view
StargazingStar
StargazingStar پیش روز
Mark: "it's like Math's chaff" Me: *frantically googles the meaning of chaff*
abbyatplay
abbyatplay پیش روز
Keep the beard
jesse wolford
jesse wolford پیش روز
I was on dreams side after his video but after this I am convinced
Lucas Torres
Lucas Torres پیش روز
Don't worry Dream, I believe you're lucky enough *-*
Jay
Jay پیش روز
Well, I'm a researcher in cybersecurity, I must say your calculations are amazing. Something bothers me a little bit tho, especially since you mentioned Punch-Out. You know, Super Mario, Punch-Out and Metroid are all games where odds are being manipulated with the number of frames on the screen. It's not "like" cheating here, it's literally 100% cheating (on purpose) to achieve the desired chain of events. Unlike a game of dices, programming won't offer you the same platform for odds, especially when you stretch your numbers like the 1-century human seconds (which is absolutely fascinating btw thank you for that). I'm a huge fan of speedruns and one common "pattern" to beat the game is to find, well, a pattern quite literally, in the code to reproduce the same scenario over and over again.
crash
crash پیش روز
1.12 allowed RNG manipulation but 1.16 certainly doesn't. But if Dream actively did that, then he would be able to prove it.
morbideddie
morbideddie پیش روز
That applies in normal games however in minecraft it’s not really achievable. It’s a random game seed and the rng has so much white noise it’s effectively impossible to manipulate.
Phoenix D
Phoenix D پیش روز
Amusing that he spends the first half of the video or so explaining the controversy and reviewing the papers, and then spends the next 10+ minutes just trying to explain to non-mathy folks, *just how insanely* unlikely those odds are.
zerxis blances
zerxis blances پیش روز
The probability of you're parents having you is unthinkable
Joaquin Martinez
Joaquin Martinez پیش روز
This is like saying to pick any random number, sure, it is a one in an infinite chance that you picked that number, but you were going to pick one.
morbideddie
morbideddie پیش روز
If I throw a dart out a plane and hit a bulls eye on the ground that’s a low probability. If I throw a dart out of a plane, find it and then paint a target around it that’s a 100% probability. You being born is the second scenario. If it weren’t you it would be some other combination of your parents DNA.
André Luis
André Luis پیش روز
Irrelevant. There are trillions of us and the concept of "you" is too abstract. Sure, the chance of someone exactly like you being born again are ridiculous, but there was no "you" measure before you were born, so it's not a relevant standard.
Nuclear Lazer
Nuclear Lazer پیش روز
Its actually 1 in 600 million said by ant venom
thefizzydude
thefizzydude پیش ساعت
Since when was ant venom a respected mathematician?
Athenri
Athenri پیش روز
Antvenom basically bends over backwards to fudge the numbers in favor of dream. His bias corrections are silly. Also, the one in 600 million he gets is "any livestreamer ever having been as lucky as Dream when you include the non sus set of runs"
René Mouritsen
René Mouritsen پیش روز
He is 100% cheating. Not even up to debate.
azocrye
azocrye پیش روز
you remind me of vsauce
Albert Jachowicz-Brzeziński
Albert Jachowicz-Brzeziński پیش روز
Me and my friends have a very unlucky run. We tried to speeddrun minecraft all together and we traded over 200 gold ingots. And got how many? 1 trade. So now we know that we were SERIOUSLY unlucky. And I mean, we knew it, but it's bad if we had a few promiles of chance for that.
Kiblord
Kiblord پیش 8 ساعت
We’re u in 1.16.3-1.16.5 because they changed pearl rates
Athenri
Athenri پیش روز
Yeah, that's pretty unlucky. Around once in 1400 attempts you're going to get at least that screwed.
Peruvator
Peruvator پیش روز
Keep up the good work!!
Stellar
Stellar پیش روز
He wasn't cheating it's just his gaming chair.
Fluffy White Llama
Fluffy White Llama پیش روز
Hilarious and original
-ChrispyNi-
-ChrispyNi- پیش روز
This man looks like Jim Carrey
Christopher Birnbaum
Christopher Birnbaum پیش روز
as someone who loves minecraft and stats this video was candy. glad to see you doing well on the channel. hope you didn't go mad with the reshoots for getting the trick shots!
Kurt Gardner
Kurt Gardner پیش روز
This video is even more entertaining to me now than if I watched it at first because I've just finished doing the Binomial Formula in further maths a couple of days ago
januzi2
januzi2 پیش روز
Mathematicians arguing about the child's game. It is just ... lol ("lol" as in "Forsenlol").
crash
crash پیش روز
Why do you care? Some people's hobbies are games and other people's are math. Does anything else matter as long as people are having fun? Stop bullying people just because you don't share interests.
Athenri
Athenri پیش روز
Don't think any mathematicians are arguing about it. They're communicating why it's patently absurd to think this is a legitimate run. The one exception is the expert Dream paid who for some reason is just throwing nonsense at the wall to see what sticks.
Guide Genius
Guide Genius پیش روز
This also totally assumes that all items drop rates are equal
A Grand
A Grand پیش روز
He literally explained the weight system in the video you watched. How'd you miss that?
David Zzz
David Zzz پیش روز
No it doesn’t lol.
Athenri
Athenri پیش روز
Nope, lmao.
TheStierstorfer
TheStierstorfer پیش روز
There are 10 kinds of people watching this: Those who understand video game math; And Those who don't.
4N4RCHY
4N4RCHY پیش 19 ساعت
Binary**
Brendan Podvora
Brendan Podvora پیش روز
So nice of Jim Carrey to break down the math of dreams speedrun
delta Mico
delta Mico پیش روز
I don't know if he did use it or not but blaze rods are also affected by looting enchantment...
morbideddie
morbideddie پیش روز
@delta Mico no problem.
delta Mico
delta Mico پیش روز
Thanks for affirmation.
morbideddie
morbideddie پیش روز
He didn’t have looting in any of the streams.
Fill@PieNo!
Fill@PieNo! پیش روز
Take a bow Maths
TheRedHorseman1208
TheRedHorseman1208 پیش 2 روز
Ngl I thought this guy was Jim Carrey before I clicked on the video lol
Brosylen
Brosylen پیش 2 روز
While watching the credits, I idly compared the odds of getting each number between 1 and 12 on two six faced dice versus on one twelve faced die. Getting a 7 is the most probable on the 2d6 (1 out of 12) while getting 2 or 12 are the least probable (1 out of 36). On the d12, each result has a probability of 1 out of 12. That has no value at all, and says nothing funny nor complicated or unintuitive. But I thought about writing it because just after computing those, I threw my dice (the two d6 and the d12), and to my astonishment, I got a double 1 on the 2d6 and a 7 on the d12, and I find this result very funny.
David Schweighofer
David Schweighofer پیش 2 روز
The end is hilarious!
No Name Kallan
No Name Kallan پیش 2 روز
Now how lucky am I to be favored with such a quality video from the algorithm?
ModernAmericanPro
ModernAmericanPro پیش 2 روز
If Dream required such amazing luck to get 4th place, wouldn’t that indicate that the top 3 records are also bogus?
André Luis
André Luis پیش روز
Dream would've been 1st place if it wasn't for the fact the portal he got had less eyes placed on it than necessary for the ones on him to he enough, so he had to find and make more. We're it not for that he would've gotten 1st
fica games11
fica games11 پیش روز
Better seeds and more skilled runners
crash
crash پیش 2 روز
No because Dream's luck was over a span of 24 hours of runs. Unlike a single world record run which would only last about 20 or so minutes.
Mindhumble
Mindhumble پیش 2 روز
Hmmm hasn't he basically disproven undirected evolution with this? I guess the "dice" must be weighted by some cosmic being!
Athenri
Athenri پیش ساعت
@Mindhumble you still haven't said how that 1:10^160 chance is derived. Can I just say random numbers as probability targets? I estimate that the odds of any gods existing is at the very most 1:10^10^10.
Mindhumble
Mindhumble پیش 12 ساعت
@OmegaAudio previous comment, sorry im losing track of who i said what to.
OmegaAudio
OmegaAudio پیش 14 ساعت
"The calculation in the video i linked had a 10^160 probability so changing the 10^58 number to 10^70 (allowing reactions to occur every trillionth of a second as opposed to every second) would basically still violate the feasability principle." You never linked a video. What are you talking about?
Aleph Naught
Aleph Naught پیش 16 ساعت
@Mindhumble amen
Mindhumble
Mindhumble پیش 16 ساعت
@Aleph Naught i 100% agree, but when it comes down to it, even the most "logical" people are swayed by their bias to not want a God to exist as it would require them to change their actions.
donnald hoang
donnald hoang پیش 2 روز
It’s to late he already famous
Extranomical
Extranomical پیش 2 روز
Dream's alibi: "Trust me bro"
Tristan you
Tristan you پیش 2 روز
2.1k dislikes seesh how much stans came to this video without watching it
fica games11
fica games11 پیش 3 ساعت
@Tristan you Still, there are 100 times more likes
Tristan you
Tristan you پیش 13 ساعت
@fica games11 yeah well its not a good like to dislike ration mostly you see 1k -800 dislike but 2.1k? and with 2.5 million views
fica games11
fica games11 پیش روز
That's only 1% compared to likes
LOSTOKYO
LOSTOKYO پیش 2 روز
I didn't know Tom could do math.
HOLYCOWofthesea!
HOLYCOWofthesea! پیش 2 روز
As a Stats TA and tutor, and a lover of Minecraft and speed runs, I feel this video is right up my alley!!!
Beau Devine
Beau Devine پیش 2 روز
One time I flipped a coin 50 times and it was tails every single time
Joaquin Martinez
Joaquin Martinez پیش روز
The coin was a paid actor
Lars
Lars پیش 2 روز
It's always heads, no one ever gets tails
OmegaAudio
OmegaAudio پیش 2 روز
Liar. I bet it was all heads.
Jerry Guo
Jerry Guo پیش 2 روز
This video reminds me of a chapter in “What if?” by Randall Munroe, in which he talked about the probabilities of acing the SAT just by guessing!
Punching Pixels
Punching Pixels پیش 2 روز
Honest question: what made the 3 record times faster than dreams go so well? Were their runs similarly mathematically improbable or did they just have better skills?
David Zzz
David Zzz پیش روز
The odds were taken from 6 consecutive streams for a large sample size. It’s like rolling a dice 4 times and getting all 6 vs rolling a dice 10000 times and getting 8000 6. The 10000 one is far more lucky.
IShoot TheyScore
IShoot TheyScore پیش 2 روز
@OmegaAudio If I recall the original video correctly, the other videos were siginificantly less lucky than Dream, but were lucky in their own right. There is a graph showing their rate of pick ups and they are all significantly lower than Dream's
OmegaAudio
OmegaAudio پیش 2 روز
From what I understand, the controversy isn't purely based on Dream's single run, but rather observations from multiple runs he did that day in an attempt at the world record. I'm presuming the top 3 record times featured similar amounts of luck on that one particular run, and terrible luck in all others.
Fluffy White Llama
Fluffy White Llama پیش 2 روز
Dream's run was actually world record pace, but he didn't achieve it because he got slowed down at the end. 1 eye of ender was missing from the portal so he burned a minute or two looking for another one. If that didn't happen it would've been the first place run without a doubt.
Misaka Mikoto
Misaka Mikoto پیش 2 روز
not as low as the resident evil 4 world record, the chance is 0.000000000118% or 1 in 847,457,627,118 or 1 in 847 billion.
David Zzz
David Zzz پیش روز
That record doesn’t even come close to the scraps example used in the video.
benderRendeer
benderRendeer پیش 2 روز
Did you even watch the Video? Dream's odss are 1 in 2.0 × 10^22 or 1 in 20,000,000,000,000,000,000,000
Citizen No.0
Citizen No.0 پیش 2 روز
you look like a bald michael palin
nekorain
nekorain پیش 2 روز
Was ist a 1.12.2 speedrun? There is rng manipulation possible in that version.
benderRendeer
benderRendeer پیش 2 روز
No it wasn't, there were piglins
Traffic Light
Traffic Light پیش 2 روز
:))
Herr Nase
Herr Nase پیش 2 روز
How many takes did your little stunt with the ball take?
طبخات التيكتوك
18:13
جُمانة بقنة
بازدید 561K
اول مرة نراقب ابننا بعد المدرسة 📸!! (كاميرا خفية)
16:50
Talin tube family - عائلة تالين تيوب
بازدید 1.5M
The Cost of Concordia
46:49
Internet Historian
بازدید 6M
What was the first (known) maths mistake?
14:09
Stand-up Maths
بازدید 507K
What Happens When Maths Goes Wrong? - with Matt Parker
1:07:34
The Royal Institution
بازدید 1.9M
The best Netflix show you haven't seen
1:19:45
Pyrocynical
بازدید 6M
Automatic pool stick vs. strangers
21:19
Stuff Made Here
بازدید 9M
Using A.I. to DOMINATE NERDS in TETRIS
31:16
Code Bullet
بازدید 3.4M
General Relativity: Top 05 Mishaps [inc INTERSTELLAR]
39:12
I Created a PERFECT SNAKE A.I.
24:04
Code Bullet
بازدید 8M
طبخات التيكتوك
18:13
جُمانة بقنة
بازدید 561K
اول مرة نراقب ابننا بعد المدرسة 📸!! (كاميرا خفية)
16:50
Talin tube family - عائلة تالين تيوب
بازدید 1.5M